Trump-O-Meter

Promises made. Which will be kept?

Jan 17, 2025

During his campaign, Donald Trump made a lot of promises to potential voters. But soon after he was declared President-elect there have been some ‘adjustments’. Maybe he can’t end the Ukraine war on day one. And reducing prices ‘is difficult’. So will Trump voters hold him to his promises? Will he pay a price for not delivering? Time will tell.

So what are the promises that Trump thinks are most important? Here’s a list from his campaign website titled “Twenty Core Promises to Make America Great Again”.1

Agenda 47 Promises

Seal the border and stop the migrant invasion

Here are some details from the GOP Platform document

Halt all releases of illegal aliens into the interior
Complete the border wall
Shift massive portions of Federal Law Enforcement to Immigration Enforcement
Employ advanced technology to monitor and secure the border
Post federal troops on the southern border
Deploy the U.S. Navy to impose a full fentanyl blockade on the waters of our region

These are all fairly specific goals so results can be tracked.

Carry out the largest deportation operation in American history

The largest deportation operation to date was Operation Wetback2, an Eisenhower era program that used military style tactics to deport somewhere between 300,000 and 1.2 million undocumented workers.

Trump’s goal appears to be to deport all undocumented aliens, estimated at about 14 million individuals, with an estimated cost of $1T over 10 years. The economic impact on businesses that rely on foreign labor is estimated at a 4.2% to 6.8% reduction in GDP and billions lost in federal and local tax revenues.3

The most recent data from ICE reports 1,447 removals (deported individuals) in September of 2024. Tracking this number can provide a measure of Trump’s success.

End inflation, and make America affordable again

At an August rally in North Carolina Trump said “Prices will come down. You just watch. They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast.” At a rally in Pennsylvania on the eve of Election Day, Trump said a vote for him meant “your groceries will be cheaper.”

But barring a recession, prices don’t decline. Wages will increase at the same rate as prices, erasing the real cost to consumers over time. But since corporations control both prices and wages, wage increases always lag, and in periods of high inflation the difference can be significant.

It’s telling that Trump’s messaging on prices has changed since the election.

“Look, they got them up. I’d like to bring them down. It’s hard to bring things down once they’re up. You know, it’s very hard,” Trump said. “But I think that they will. I think that energy is going to bring them down. I think a better supply chain is going to bring them down. You know, the supply chain is still broken.”

Unlike most of Trump’s promises, this is a very specific goal and easily tracked.

Make America the dominant energy producer in the world, by far!

China is currently the largest producer of energy in the world. The US is second, producing about half of the total for China. But China’s population is four times that of the US, so it seems like Trump can declare victory on day one.

Of course most of the MAGA rhetoric on energy production is about drilling for oil. The US has been the largest producer of oil worldwide for the last six years, so that goal seems to be accomplished as well.

Finally, the future of energy is renewables. Although Trump has repeatedly attacked renewables, calling windmills economic disasters, his pick for the Department of Energy has a long record of supporting them. With any luck our federal policy will remain one of all of the above.

Stop Outsourcing and Turn the United States into a Manufacturing Superpower.

In 2024 China was the largest manufacturer, with the US second. The focus of the Biden administration has been to use tariffs and incentives to encourage US manufacturing of strategically important products like semiconductors and emerging markets like EVs and batteries.

Trump’s plan appears to be to impose blanket tariffs on foreign imports to achieve two goals; generate federal income from foreign suppliers and make foreign products more expensive to encourage local manufacturing. The obvious flaw in this plan is that tariffs are paid by the buyer, not the seller, so tariffs are essentially a tax on the American consumer. This is at odds with the goal to lower inflation.

Large tax cuts for workers, and no tax on tips!

Tax cuts are always on the top of the list for the MAGA contingent. These examples are more specific. It’s not clear how ‘large’ or ‘workers’ are defined, but history tells us that conservative tax cuts are usually focused on the top.

Defend our constitution, our bill of rights, and our fundamental freedoms, including freedom of speech, freedom of religion, and the right to keep and bear arms

This is dictated by the oath of office, but open to interpretation. Trump has repeatedly attacked freedom of speech that he doesn’t approve of, defended some religions while attacking others, and resisting even the most popular proposals for gun control.

Prevent world war three, restore peace in Europe and in the Middle East, and build a great iron dome missile defense shield over our entire country -- all made in America

During the presidential debate with Kamala Harris, Trump claimed that he would end the Ukraine war before his inauguration by simply talking to Zelensky and Putin. Since he won the election Putin rejected Trump’s initial proposal and his advisers have announced that a solution is months away at best.4

During his first term in office Trump promised to end the Middle East war and assigned the task to son-in-law Jared Kushner. He was unsuccessful. The Biden administration has just announced a cease fire and hostage exchange between Israel and Hamas.

The recent threats to annex Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal while refusing to exclude the use of force seem contrary to this goal. Other counter productive positions are attacks on NATO and lack of support for Ukraine.

End the weaponization of government against the American people

It’s hard to comment on this one without specifics. One possibility that comes to mind is the consistent attacks on IRS funding allocated to prosecute tax cheats. This proposal would find support from Trump’s billionaire supporters.

Stop the migrant crime epidemic, demolish the foreign drug cartels, crush gang violence, and lock up violent offenders

There is no evidence of a ‘migrant crime epidemic’.5 Demolishing foreign drug cartels is a noble goal, but will require a close working relationship with Mexico and other South American governments.

Rebuild our cities, including Washington DC, making them safe, clean, and beautiful again.

This has echoes of Trump’s perennial infrastructure promises. But rebuilding cities would take a lot of money which is inconsistent with his promise to lower taxes.

Strengthen and modernize our military, making it, without question, the strongest and most powerful in the world

This seems like a layup since our military is already the strongest and most powerful in the world. Since the military already represents around 15% our national budget and the largest use of discretionary spending this looks like an opportunity for cost cutting.

Keep the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency

It’s unlikely that there will be a significant decline in the role of the US dollar as a global reserve currency.6

Fight for and protect Social Security and Medicare with no cuts, including no changes to the retirement age

In a CNBC interview Trump said “There is a lot you can do in terms of entitlements, in terms of cutting and in terms of also the theft and the bad management of entitlements. There’s tremendous amounts of things and numbers of things you can do.” There have been no specific proposals about how this could be accomplished, how much it could save, or how to address the coming shortfalls.

Congressional Republicans on the other hand, have been openly calling for ‘reforms’.

Cancel the electric vehicle mandate and cut costly and burdensome regulations

There is no federal EV mandate. The Biden administration did tighten emissions standards and set a goal for EV adoption. The impact of ‘costly and burdensome regulations’ varies. Air pollution regulations were costly and burdensome to auto manufacturers, but beneficial to citizens and the environment.

Clearly EV’s are the future for many reasons. At this stage of development they can’t replace gas and hybrid vehicles, but that time will come quickly. China is dominating the development of EV and battery technology. Abandoning this market is inconsistent with the goal of building US manufacturing and the economy.

Cut federal funding for any school pushing critical race theory, radical gender ideology, and other inappropriate racial, sexual, or political content on our children

Schools are not federal entities. School boards and policy are local. This sounds like federal overreach.

Keep men out of women's sports

An oddly specific goal that is not part of the federal government’s mandate or control.

Deport pro-Hamas radicals and make our college campuses safe and patriotic again

Barring an actual crime this sounds like a violation of freedom of speech.

Secure our elections, including same day voting, voter identification, paper ballots, and proof of citizenship

Once again this is a promise to fix a problem that doesn’t exist. Our elections are run at the state level and have proven to be secure and fair.

Unite our country by bringing it to new and record levels of success

Tracking this goal would require an objective definition of ‘success’. Typical metrics include GDP, employment, and inflation. The US is a leader in all of these areas among developed nations. Continued improvement will be easy to track.

Questions

Of all of the Trump/MAGA promises, which are most important to you?
Which, if any, do you see as troubling or contradictory?
What would you add to the list?